The extraordinary “triple-dip” La Nia weather phenomenon, which cooled the Pacific Ocean and influenced Earth’s weather for the previous three years, appears to be over. However, experts have already cautioned that a rising period associated with El Nio may be developing. If accurate, it could have some worrisome repercussions for global climate.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology reported on March 14 that, after three years of La Nia circumstances, global climate models indicate the El Nio-Southern Oscillation is presently neutral.
They further stated that since there is a greater than 50% chance that El Nio circumstances will develop later in 2023, they have already switched over to an El Nio WATCH.
If this forecast is accurate, El Nio could fuel heat surges and raise the world’s temperature above what it has in recent years.
The normal temperature of the Earth can increase by up to 0.2°C (0.36°F) during a strong El Nio. El Nio has the potential to push the global average temperature over the much-touted 1.5°C (2.7°F) barrier, which would be a depressing turning point in the world’s climate catastrophe given that the planet has already warmed by about 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels.
But as always, nothing is certain.
The three-year La Nia event has ended, but it’s unclear what will happen next, according to Dr. Nandini Ramesh, Senior Research Scientist in Natural Hazards at CSIRO and the University of Sydney.
It is infamously challenging to predict how the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere will change from this time of year (March to May). So even though the majority of prediction models currently anticipate an impending El Nio, I wouldn’t start betting just yet,” she continued.
What are the El Nio-Southern Oscillation and La Nia?
The El Nio-Southern Oscillation is a complicated cycle that explains how changes in the Pacific Ocean’s climate have an effect on everything from wind, temperature, and rainfall patterns to the severity of hurricane seasons and even the spread of fish in the oceans.
Every few years, the pattern alternates between El Nio and La Nia periods, with neutral phases sandwiched in between.
Ocean water warms up in the central Pacific during El Nio, which has an impact on the rest of the globe. Warmer seas cause the Pacific jet stream to shift south and expand, bringing warmer, drier weather to the northern US and Canada while bringing more rain to the southern states.
While El Nio intensifies cyclone activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, it actually diminishes hurricane seasons in the Atlantic Ocean.
The Pacific Ocean’s cooling period, known as La Nia, is the other side of the coin and has an equally significant effect on global temperature.
What Is A “Triple-Dip” La Nia, Then?
Given that the world has been experiencing an uncommon “triple-dip” La Nia that has lasted since around September 2020, the last three years have been especially unique.
The Atlantic coast of the Americas has experienced one of the most important effects of this “triple-dip” La Nia, with a record-breaking hurricane season in 2020 and the third-most busy hurricane season in 2021.
La Nia is related to the chaotic hurricane seasons because it eliminates the factors that prevent storm formation during El Nio and promotes the formation of cyclones.
On the other side of the globe, Australia was affected by the lingering La Nia, which led to inundation and unusually wet weather in 2022.
According to Dr. Tom Mortlock, Senior Analyst at Aon and Adjunct Fellow at the UNSW Climate Change Research Centre, “The Bureau’s statement that La Nia has concluded marks the formal end of the ‘big wet’, an unusual triple-dip La Nia that was only the fourth since 1900 and the first in 22 years.
“During this time, Sydney experienced its wettest year on record, which contributed to the NSW and QLD storms in February and March, which ended up being Australia’s biggest insured loss occurrence ever. The currently estimated insurance industry damages for this incident total AUD 5.76 billion, making them larger than the thunderstorm that hit Sydney in 1999 (AUD 5.57 billion), according to him.
