Asteroid 2022 AE1 has caused some astronomers a lot of anxiety in the New Year. Initial data from the first week of 2022 revealed that this 70-meter (230-foot) space rock was hurtling towards Earth and was on track to collide with the planet in little over 18 months. Was our world on the verge of a real-life Don’t Look Up moment? You’ll be relieved to learn that this is no longer a possibility – for the time being, Earth is secure from asteroids. Nonetheless, the concern was enough to make for a nervous week for the European Space Agency (ESA).
The Asteroid Orbit Determination, an automated method that derives orbits using asteroid observation data given by telescopes and observatories throughout the world, first detected the impending impact on January 6. Other ESA scientists monitored 2022 AE1 throughout the course of the following week and came to the same conclusion. In fact, the chance of effect seemed to increase with each new discovery. It was thought to be the most dangerous asteroid in nearly a decade, rating exceptionally high on the Palermo Scale, a metric used by astronomers to assess the likelihood of a near-Earth object colliding with the Earth.
“I’ve never seen such a dangerous object in my almost 10 years at ESA,” Marco Micheli, an astronomer at ESA’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre (NEOCC), said in a statement. According to their calculations, 2022 AE1 will crash with Earth on July 4, 2023. (Happy Independence Day, folks). Although it was too late to prevent the possible collision, the object was huge enough to wreak major damage to the planet.
The issue then grew much hazier. The asteroid could no longer be seen on January 12 because it was momentarily obscured by the Moon. Astronomers were kept in the dark, unable to learn anything new about 2022 AE1 and its upcoming trip. They merely had to wait for the Moon to migrate and let the Solar System do its job. Astronomers were able to collect more measurements a week later. The new data, to their amazement — and relief — revealed that the chances of a collision with Earth were limited to none.
The chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth were almost nil. According to their current predictions, AE1 will pass by Earth safely in early July 2023 at a distance of around 10 million kilometers (6.2 million miles). This may appear to be a huge blunder to get something so important and so incorrect. However, according to ESA, asteroids commonly follow this pattern: the object looks to be dangerous at first, the risk increases, and then it is found that the asteroid will not get close to Earth.
The first observation is nothing more than a single data point in the sky, with no indication of its future direction, speed, origin, or voyage. It will take at least three sightings to obtain a good understanding of its orbit, but there is still a lot of uncertainty. It’s impossible to say if it will avoid Earth at this moment. These uncertainties may be lowered if more observations are received, but the chance of a collision with Earth may stay unchanged.
This provides the idea that the risk of a collision with the Earth is rising. A clear picture of the issue emerges eventually. The possible danger zone will become noticeably finer and more definite, thus reducing the threat to Earth. Unless, of course, the asteroid is indeed on its way to Earth. Given the planet’s recent good fortune, we can only hope that scientists at ESA and elsewhere keep their eyes vigilant and ready to act.
